Yes, China looks horrible. But hey, it's only February. Plenty can happen till New Year's eve, both good and bad. Xi can do a Great Turnaround, and my money is on that, assuming the CP still realizes its legitimacy is based on economic performance. But nothing is sure in life.
No, this strategy is only now entering its second year. That means, 2023 was the first year, and 2024 will be the second year.
But your question made me curious. How *would* we have performed in 2022?
Results in 2022 when the two previous years were negative:
Turkey +91.2%
Peru +9.4%
Brazil +14.6%
Chile +22.6%
Colombia -5%
Philippines -13.5%
Thailand +5.3%
For Chile, by the way, it was the fourth negative year. And it was Colombia's third bad year.
Mind you, these are the MSCI country index results, and not the ETF performance data. You can use Portfoliovisualizer to check that data. I might follow up with that in the days to come.
There are some excellent Emerging Market people out there. Mark Moebius, who has a fantastic track record, in the summer recommended India, which I bought and has progressed very nicely ever since.
I don't know anything about individual funds, however. The CAGR of buying and holding GQGPX is not particularly excellent, I would think -- 5.27% since 2018 is nothing special.
Please note that a fund which is trying to forecast economic growth based on macro models is quite different from my / from Meb Fabers mean reversion model. Totally differerent approach, totally different philosophy.
I also bought India fund IFN up 36% in 2023 with 9% dividend.
I am not getting alerts for comments posted by other Users and your replies to other users. I used to get alerts on SA for all comments. I am only getting alerts for replies to me by you only. Do you know how to set up blog comments alerts for all Users on this site? Thanks.
When would MCHI go up?
https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1753528788984492214
Yes, China looks horrible. But hey, it's only February. Plenty can happen till New Year's eve, both good and bad. Xi can do a Great Turnaround, and my money is on that, assuming the CP still realizes its legitimacy is based on economic performance. But nothing is sure in life.
Very well written and researched article. It gives me an area to consider that I hadn’t previously. Keep up the fine work!
very kind of you to say that. Thank you, Vance! I hope you are doing well.
Happy New Year!
Like it. How did this strategy did in 2022? I looked thru archive and could not find 2022 selections. Thanks
thanks for checking out the archive, Rao!
No, this strategy is only now entering its second year. That means, 2023 was the first year, and 2024 will be the second year.
But your question made me curious. How *would* we have performed in 2022?
Results in 2022 when the two previous years were negative:
Turkey +91.2%
Peru +9.4%
Brazil +14.6%
Chile +22.6%
Colombia -5%
Philippines -13.5%
Thailand +5.3%
For Chile, by the way, it was the fourth negative year. And it was Colombia's third bad year.
Mind you, these are the MSCI country index results, and not the ETF performance data. You can use Portfoliovisualizer to check that data. I might follow up with that in the days to come.
How do you like professionally managed low risk Emerging market fund GQGPX up 28.5% in 2023? Down like other funds in 2022. Thanks
There are some excellent Emerging Market people out there. Mark Moebius, who has a fantastic track record, in the summer recommended India, which I bought and has progressed very nicely ever since.
I don't know anything about individual funds, however. The CAGR of buying and holding GQGPX is not particularly excellent, I would think -- 5.27% since 2018 is nothing special.
Please note that a fund which is trying to forecast economic growth based on macro models is quite different from my / from Meb Fabers mean reversion model. Totally differerent approach, totally different philosophy.
I also bought India fund IFN up 36% in 2023 with 9% dividend.
I am not getting alerts for comments posted by other Users and your replies to other users. I used to get alerts on SA for all comments. I am only getting alerts for replies to me by you only. Do you know how to set up blog comments alerts for all Users on this site? Thanks.
yes, this is a flaw of Substack. I hope they will fix it at some point. It really reduces the user experience.