Thank you for sharing. What I did was combine the SPY chart and below it the MACD of IBIT. It looks to have given two strong sell signals, one in March, before the April pullback; and a second signal in late November, to miss this current pullback.
YC/TO is short for Yesterday's Close / Today's Open and it's simulating more practical cases of trading at today's open based on the logic evaluation using yesterday's close prices. You know, you cannot really use close prices to trade on the same day since the market is already closed. QuantMage's regular trading happens around 10 minutes before each day's market close to circumvent this conundrum. https://quantmage.app/library/guides/yc_to/
So, you are selling at signal + 2 days on the EMA, while I was selling on the first of the month on the SMA.
Your approach seems to improve MAR a bit, and of course selling at signal makes one a lot less dependent on timing luck. (Selling monthly on the EMA seems to double the drawdown, to cite one example).
The downside is a lot more trading. With a monthly approach, I get down to as little as 12 trades in the time span of 2016 to end-'24. EMA at signal, in contrast, can cause up to 80 trades in the same period, with all the slippage that may induce.
Do you as a general rule prefer to sell at signal?
Yes, it goes risk-on only when the signal holds at least for two consecutive days. And I used the EMA on the left side since it gave me a better result.
You can test weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly trading options, too, in QuantMage by adjusting "When To Trade" setting near the top. In this case, the, so called, threshold trading results in 11 trades only for the whole period. It traded at most twice each year. You can check how many trades happed per each year in the "Stats" tab.
Interesting concept - I’m glad you posted it. I don’t, however, see it (using $btcusd alone against spy) as a useful tool. Keep the excellent articles coming!
Fascinating article. As you point out, it is difficult to trust, given the limited history. I like the thought of it with a leveraged ETF strategy.
With regards to Bitcoin, I own some as well as Ethereum. I like the more practical nature of Ethereum but underestimated the interest in Bitcoin. I am still skeptical about crypto in general - especially with coins like fartcoin. I am optimistic about blockchain applications (non-currency applications). I am not so sure that governments will allow a non-centralized currency to flourish. Plus, it is difficult to use in everyday life. Lastly, there is a reasonably significant need for electricity consumption as well.
an afterthought: possibly, Bitcoin would not be so high and mighty right now if it weren't a bet on Crypto Bros having Trump's ear. In other words, it may have lost some of its value as a general indicator of the market's animal spirits. We'll see!
I agree with you 100% on the cons of Bitcoin. Thanks for sharing your views, Steve!
Thank you for sharing. What I did was combine the SPY chart and below it the MACD of IBIT. It looks to have given two strong sell signals, one in March, before the April pullback; and a second signal in late November, to miss this current pullback.
I enjoy learning from your work. Thank you.
intriguing, thanks Will! Looks very good. However, it seems to me there was also a sell signal generated in June that prevented a nice SPY gain.
In any case, with IBIT's short history, it's somewhat early to tell, but I'll be keeping an eye on it.
An interesting idea! I came up with https://quantmage.app/grimoire/ac60c2facfc437d08b5c4107e22cd3c8 based on it.
nice!
What does YC/TO mean?
YC/TO is short for Yesterday's Close / Today's Open and it's simulating more practical cases of trading at today's open based on the logic evaluation using yesterday's close prices. You know, you cannot really use close prices to trade on the same day since the market is already closed. QuantMage's regular trading happens around 10 minutes before each day's market close to circumvent this conundrum. https://quantmage.app/library/guides/yc_to/
So, you are selling at signal + 2 days on the EMA, while I was selling on the first of the month on the SMA.
Your approach seems to improve MAR a bit, and of course selling at signal makes one a lot less dependent on timing luck. (Selling monthly on the EMA seems to double the drawdown, to cite one example).
The downside is a lot more trading. With a monthly approach, I get down to as little as 12 trades in the time span of 2016 to end-'24. EMA at signal, in contrast, can cause up to 80 trades in the same period, with all the slippage that may induce.
Do you as a general rule prefer to sell at signal?
Yes, it goes risk-on only when the signal holds at least for two consecutive days. And I used the EMA on the left side since it gave me a better result.
You can test weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly trading options, too, in QuantMage by adjusting "When To Trade" setting near the top. In this case, the, so called, threshold trading results in 11 trades only for the whole period. It traded at most twice each year. You can check how many trades happed per each year in the "Stats" tab.
Interesting concept - I’m glad you posted it. I don’t, however, see it (using $btcusd alone against spy) as a useful tool. Keep the excellent articles coming!
Fascinating article. As you point out, it is difficult to trust, given the limited history. I like the thought of it with a leveraged ETF strategy.
With regards to Bitcoin, I own some as well as Ethereum. I like the more practical nature of Ethereum but underestimated the interest in Bitcoin. I am still skeptical about crypto in general - especially with coins like fartcoin. I am optimistic about blockchain applications (non-currency applications). I am not so sure that governments will allow a non-centralized currency to flourish. Plus, it is difficult to use in everyday life. Lastly, there is a reasonably significant need for electricity consumption as well.
an afterthought: possibly, Bitcoin would not be so high and mighty right now if it weren't a bet on Crypto Bros having Trump's ear. In other words, it may have lost some of its value as a general indicator of the market's animal spirits. We'll see!
I agree with you 100% on the cons of Bitcoin. Thanks for sharing your views, Steve!