thanks very much for the very good backtest, Jaewon!
Since you already did the basic programming work, perhaps you might look into how these bands perform for other indices, such as the QQQ, DAX or KOSPI? I'd be highly interested in the results.
Generally, I found that Bill's bands performed slightly better than the simple golden cross/death cross in the long term, but not by a major margin. 2020 screwed up the Golden Cross pretty much, but in many other stretches of time, a slower-reacting trigger is better.
I did some more tests with QQQ and some country ETFs (EWx stuff). For QQQ, it offered a better risk-adjusted return, but it wasn't as good as the SPY version. And using 5%/10% up/down margins (instead of 3%/5%) worked better for it. Given the US dominance in the last decade or so, the country ETFs overall didn't perform well compared to the SPY version. For Germany (EWG), the band strategy still offered a better risk-adjusted return, but for Korea (EWY), the performance was worse than the buy-and-hold and the simple crossover strategy was actually better than the band strategy.
(Just as a side note, I'm not the biggest fan of Keller; he tends to hold some views that need to be taken with a grain of critical thought. For instance, late last October, he quoted the old truism, "nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average", right before really excellent things happened).
Anyway, I think I need to set up a similar type collection as Keller, but using the stuff about which I posted.
Keller's comment about the 200 MA was a quote from some famous trader. I watch his stuff only once in a while as it's a good refresher.
Regarding your comment: "I think I need to set up a similar type collection as Keller, but using the stuff about which I posted." I have something like that. Using very simple code in Note Pad you can design your own indicators to display using StockCharts. You don't need to be a coder becuase you can replace your own links in the code. Let me know if interested.
Martin, A very stylish trunk full of sell signals! Thanks for sharing. I'm going to put these in my dashboard. I absolutely agree with you about the inflection points being key.
I'm waiting for the buy signals your teased, as well.
QuantMage adaptation of Bill Sadek's Bands: https://quantmage.app/grimoire/2189ec605691d29ddb770317a57b79d2
Pretty good!
thanks very much for the very good backtest, Jaewon!
Since you already did the basic programming work, perhaps you might look into how these bands perform for other indices, such as the QQQ, DAX or KOSPI? I'd be highly interested in the results.
Generally, I found that Bill's bands performed slightly better than the simple golden cross/death cross in the long term, but not by a major margin. 2020 screwed up the Golden Cross pretty much, but in many other stretches of time, a slower-reacting trigger is better.
Thank you, too, for sharing! I'll experiment with it further and get back to you here.
I did some more tests with QQQ and some country ETFs (EWx stuff). For QQQ, it offered a better risk-adjusted return, but it wasn't as good as the SPY version. And using 5%/10% up/down margins (instead of 3%/5%) worked better for it. Given the US dominance in the last decade or so, the country ETFs overall didn't perform well compared to the SPY version. For Germany (EWG), the band strategy still offered a better risk-adjusted return, but for Korea (EWY), the performance was worse than the buy-and-hold and the simple crossover strategy was actually better than the band strategy.
Excellent post Martin!
Other good market timing tools from David Keller: https://stockcharts.com/articles/sharedcharts.php?cc=1631730 (He's very good!)
Keller's collection is great, thanks Bill!
(Just as a side note, I'm not the biggest fan of Keller; he tends to hold some views that need to be taken with a grain of critical thought. For instance, late last October, he quoted the old truism, "nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average", right before really excellent things happened).
Anyway, I think I need to set up a similar type collection as Keller, but using the stuff about which I posted.
Keller's comment about the 200 MA was a quote from some famous trader. I watch his stuff only once in a while as it's a good refresher.
Regarding your comment: "I think I need to set up a similar type collection as Keller, but using the stuff about which I posted." I have something like that. Using very simple code in Note Pad you can design your own indicators to display using StockCharts. You don't need to be a coder becuase you can replace your own links in the code. Let me know if interested.
Good job a few weeks ago fading the Baltic Dry Index exit signal!
Martin, A very stylish trunk full of sell signals! Thanks for sharing. I'm going to put these in my dashboard. I absolutely agree with you about the inflection points being key.
I'm waiting for the buy signals your teased, as well.